Non-motorized Travel Demand Modeling & Facility Selection – Statewide

Methodology and tools developed in this multi-year research and development project enable planners and engineers to now predict usage of planned bicycle and pedestrian facilities, select the best facility type for setting, determine the resulting improvement in bicycling and/or walking conditions, and assess the benefits relative to the investment costs. Sprinkle Consulting staff used survey responses, along with socio-demographic data and facility-specific geometric data, to create statistically reliable and easy-to-use mathematical models predicting the number of people who would walk or ride bicycles for travel and recreation in a given corridor when the new facilities are built. These logit and regression models calculate how many people and what types of trips (either ‘utilitarian mode-shift or induced recreational) they will make on the proposed facilities based on corridor characteristics and surrounding demographics (esp. population and employment mix, balance and other socio-economic characteristics). The logit model evaluates users perceptions of utility for each mode of travel (car, transit, bike, walk) to predict the share of travel each mode will receive along a given corridor. The regression model predicts the recreational bicycle ridership along a corridor that could be induced by providing improved bicycle facilities. Florida DOT District 7 funded this collaborative R&D program with Sprinkle Consulting and the District’s senior transportation planning staff.